An unconventional future for energy

GLOBAL energy demand will continue to rise, with particularly strong growth predicted in production from unconventional oil and gas sources, according to BP’s recently-released third annual Energy Outlook.
Forecasting the most likely developments in global energy markets to 2030, the outlook predicted global energy demand would continue to increase at an average of 1.6 per cent per year. Ninety-three per cent of that growth was expected to come from countries outside of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), such as China and India.
Oil was projected to be the slowest growing of the major fuels for the period, according to the report, with demand increasing by just 0.8 per cent per year; natural gas would be the fastest growing fossil fuel with demand growing at 2 per cent a year, it stated, while LNG production was expected to be more than double that figure with a projected yearly increase of 4.3 per cent.
Non-OECD countries would be the largest consumers of natural gas, accounting for 76 per cent of demand growth, according to the report. BP predicted the growth’s “pattern of supply” would change, with unconventional sources such as tight and shale gas, heavy oil and biofuels having a greater impact, particularly in the US.
Major growth in production of tight oil, oil sands and biofuels also indicated theUS would be 99 per cent self-sufficient in net energy by 2030, while China and India would become increasingly dependent on energy imports to support demand growth.
In 2030, North America was also expected to account for 73 per cent of the world’s shale gas production. While produced on a smaller scale than fossil fuels, the renewable energy sector would be the “fastest growing class of energy,” with demand rising at 7.6 per cent a year to 2030.
Traditionally dominated by OECD economies, non-OECD economies were expected to account for 41 per cent of total renewable growth by 2030. BP Group chief executive Bob Dudley said response to the outlook should involve increasing energy efficiency in regards to demand and intensifying the search for new resources to stimulate supply. Mr Dudley said fears relating to lack of oil could be allayed by the knowledge that production would only grow.
“Fears over oil running out – to which [BP] never subscribed – appear increasingly  groundless,” he said.
“The US will not be increasingly dependent on energy imports; indeed energy is set to reinvigorate its economy.
“The projections demonstrate that we inhabit a diverse and dynamic energy market in which there is everything to play for – the future is full of opportunities for job-creating businesses with world-leading technology and for countries that want to work with them.”

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

* Copy This Password *

* Type Or Paste Password Here *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>